Sunday, September 09, 2007

Inadequate processing of information


Capital Ideas Evolving
Peter L. Bernstein


One of Yogi Berra’s fascinatingly uncanny quotes is that forecasting is very difficult especially when it comes to the future. Yet most of life is about making decisions whose outcome is hidden from us, writes Peter L. Bernstein in ‘Capital Ideas Evolving’ ( http://www.wiley.com/ ).

“Many times, and especially in investing, uncertainty comes lumped together with complexity,” he cautions. In response, we tend to use shortcuts, but these lead to “inadequate processing of information, or avoiding the use of information entirely and relying on our gut to guide us.”

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